Possible Reserves: Quantities with at least a 10% Probability of Commercial Recovery

Types

Possible reserves are part of a broader classification scheme used to quantify resource potential:

• Proved Reserves: High certainty (90% or more) of recovery.
• Probable Reserves: Medium certainty (50-90%) of recovery.
• Possible Reserves: Lower certainty (10-50%) of recovery.

Detailed Explanation

Possible reserves refer to estimates of natural resources that have a low but significant probability (at least 10%) of being recovered economically with current technologies and prices. They are less certain compared to proved and probable reserves and often require further exploration and analysis.

Mathematical Models

Possible reserves are often quantified using probabilistic models. The volumetric method can be expressed as:

Where:

• \( P_{pos} \) = Possible reserves
• \( P_{est} \) = Estimated total resource volume
• \( P_{pr} \) = Probability of proved reserves
• \( P_{pb} \) = Probability of probable reserves

Importance

Understanding possible reserves is vital for:

• Investment Decisions: Influencing capital allocation.
• Strategic Planning: Assisting companies in long-term planning.
• Government Policy: Guiding energy policies and national resource management.

Related Terms

• Contingent Resources: Resources potentially recoverable but not currently considered commercial.
• Prospective Resources: Resources estimated to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations.

FAQs

Q: What determines if a reserve is classified as possible? A: The classification is based on geological evidence and engineering analysis indicating at least a 10% probability of commercial recovery.

Q: Can possible reserves become proved reserves? A: Yes, with further exploration, technological advancements, and favorable economic conditions, possible reserves can be reclassified as proved reserves.