Compellence is a strategy used in international relations and military science to coerce an adversary into taking a specific action. Unlike deterrence, which aims to prevent an action, compellence seeks to influence the adversary’s behavior by making the cost of non-compliance unacceptable.
Historical Context
The term “compellence” was coined by Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling in his 1966 book “Arms and Influence.” The concept has roots in military and diplomatic history, though it gained substantial analytical clarity during the Cold War era.
Types/Categories
- Direct Compellence: Implies an overt and immediate threat to force compliance.
- Indirect Compellence: Relies on indirect pressure, often through economic sanctions or political isolation.
- Immediate Compellence: Requires a rapid response or action from the adversary.
- Gradual Compellence: Involves a series of escalating threats or actions over a prolonged period.
Key Events
- Cuban Missile Crisis (1962): The U.S. used compellence to force the Soviet Union to withdraw missiles from Cuba.
- Persian Gulf War (1990-1991): Coalition forces used a combination of military threats and sanctions to compel Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait.
Detailed Explanations
Compellence operates on the principle that the adversary’s inaction will result in significant losses or hardships. The strategy requires credibility, communication of intent, and often a demonstration of capability.
Key Elements
- Credibility: The adversary must believe that the threatening entity will follow through.
- Capability: Sufficient military or economic power to impose costs.
- Communication: Clear articulation of demands and consequences.
Mathematical Models
While compellence is more qualitative, game theory models can simulate scenarios to understand decision-making under coercion.
graph TD
A[Actor A] -->|Threat| B[Adversary B]
B -->|Compliance| C[Desired Action]
B -->|Non-compliance| D[Consequences]
Importance
Compellence is crucial in international diplomacy for achieving specific outcomes without resorting to full-scale conflict. It is used to manage crises, enforce policies, and ensure compliance with international norms.
Applicability
Compellence is applicable in:
- Military Strategy: Forcing enemy withdrawals or surrenders.
- Economic Sanctions: Pressuring states to change policies.
- Diplomatic Negotiations: Coercing adversaries into agreements.
Examples
- North Korean Denuclearization Efforts: Economic sanctions and military posturing by the international community.
- Russian Annexation of Crimea (2014): Western sanctions intended to compel Russia to cease aggressive actions in Ukraine.
Considerations
- Escalation Risks: Miscalculations can lead to unintended conflict.
- Moral and Ethical Concerns: The impact on civilian populations.
- International Law: Compliance with legal frameworks governing the use of force.
Related Terms
- Deterrence: Preventing an adversary from taking an action.
- Coercion: Using threats or force to influence behavior.
- Diplomacy: The practice of managing international relations.
Comparisons
- Deterrence vs. Compellence: Deterrence aims to maintain the status quo, while compellence seeks to change it.
- Coercion vs. Persuasion: Coercion involves threats; persuasion relies on argument and incentives.
Interesting Facts
- Cuban Missile Crisis: Often cited as a textbook example of successful compellence.
- Sanctions: Studies suggest sanctions are more effective when combined with diplomatic engagement.
Inspirational Stories
The Berlin Airlift (1948-1949): Western Allies used a compellence strategy of economic pressure and supply efforts to break the Soviet blockade of West Berlin.
Famous Quotes
- “The power to compel belief is the only kind of power a government can have.” — George Orwell
- “We live in a world where there is a risk of the use of force in a coercive strategy against weaker nations.” — Condoleezza Rice
Proverbs and Clichés
- “You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.” (Highlighting the preference for positive reinforcement over compellence)
- “Speak softly and carry a big stick.”
Expressions, Jargon, and Slang
- Red Line: A point of no return in compellence strategies.
- Carrot and Stick: Combining incentives with threats.
FAQs
Is compellence always effective?
How does compellence differ from coercion?
References
- Schelling, T.C. (1966). “Arms and Influence.” Yale University Press.
- Art, R.J., & Cronin, P.M. (2003). “The United States and Coercive Diplomacy.” United States Institute of Peace Press.
- Freedman, L. (1998). “Strategic Coercion: Concepts and Cases.” Oxford University Press.
Summary
Compellence is a critical strategy in international relations, military strategy, and diplomacy, used to force adversaries into taking specific actions through threats and the demonstration of power. Understanding its intricacies helps in effective policy-making and crisis management.
